Archive for June, 2010
The Culprit In BP Oil Spill
We have met the culprit and he is us. It is us that cause the oil spill.
We — both parties — created an awful set of incentives that encouraged our best students to go to Wall Street to create crazy financial instruments instead of to Silicon Valley to create new products that improve people’s lives. We — both parties — created massive tax incentives and cheap money to make home mortgages available to people who really didn’t have the means to sustain them. And we — both parties — sent BP out in the gulf to get us as much oil as possible at the cheapest price. (Of course, we expected them to take care, but when you’re drilling for oil beneath 5,000 feet of water, stuff happens.)
BRIC Performance
April 23rd was a peak for equity markets. The market has fallen quite substantially from there, which I’m inclined to believe is a correction and a price-in of slower growth in the world economy with the problems in Europe, tensions in Korea, Chinese property assets inflation fears, slower than estimated increases in jobs in US.
Chart below shows the performance of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) countries since the 4/23 peak. India (Sensex Index) has held up the best by quite a bit with a decline of just over 5%. Brazil’s Bovespa Index is down at -11.2%. China’s Shanghai Composite is down 15.8%, while Russia’s RTS is down the most at 16.4%. US’ S&P 500 is right in middle with a decline of 12.8%.
While the US and China have just moved to new correction lows, Russia, Brazil, and India are all above the lows they made in late May.
Adapted from Bespokeinvestment Group at www.bespokeinvest.com
May – A Volatile Month With 2 Tales To Tell
May has been a volatile month. Europe’s sovereign debt risks and tensions in Korean Peninsular weighs down heavily on the financial markets while economic data has shown that the recovery is underway.
Speculation and intense debate on 2 issues, whether Greece will be forced to default and whether Euro will lose some of its weaker member countries has died down a little. However, things are still not certain a month after attacks lead to a trillion dollar bailout package. Euro skeptics say the forced spending cuts and tax increases will scuttle a recovery before it takes hold. The fiscal austerity measures will be a big drag on growth. Spain lost its AAA credit grade at Fitch Ratings, dropping one step to AA+ to a “stable” outlook.
